Some good advice...

Most people don't trust used car salesmen. Why? Because used car salesmen are notorious for saying or doing anything necessary to get you to buy a car.

In fact, the salesman may know that the vehicle you're eyeing is a lemon; however, if they believe that they have a chance of selling you that vehicle, then they're not going to bother mentioning that tidbit of information. The salesman is there for one reason... to make money. You'll have their attention just long enough for them to sell you that car. Afterwards, they may not even remember your name.

I find it interesting that real estate agents aren't viewed the same way. Think about it, an agent is not going to tell you, we're in a downward market perhaps you shouldn't buy right now. They are there for one reason... to make money, and you'll have their attention just long enough to buy or for them to provision the sell of your home.

For that reason, I decided to use some of the information I gathered in researching the post "It's all happened before...", and cross-referenced it with the statements that were made by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) during the corresponding time period to determine how accurate (good) their advice has been.

Year	Analysts/Media	National Association of Realtors
2005	Overheated housing market is cooling. Median prices declined 5.7% in September, one sign that housing is cooling.	[08/2005] After four consecutive record years, home sales should ease but remain close to record levels in 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales should decline about 2.5% to a total of 6.48 million in 2005.
2006	Continued market slowdown. Prices are flat, home sales fall, resulting in inventory buildup. U.S. Home Construction Index is down over 40% as of mid-August 2006 compared to a year earlier.	[09/2006] Home sales are likely to level out at a lower pace in the months ahead, according to NAR's latest Pending Home Sales Index. The index, which is based on contracts signed in July, is down 7.0% to 105.6 from a downwardly revised reading of 113.5 in June, and is 16.0% lower than July 2005.
2007	California housing: still unaffordable. Year-over-year decreases. Home sales and home prices accelerates [downward] rather than bottoming out, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson calling the "the housing decline ... the most significant risk to our economy."	[01/2007] “2007 will be the fifth best year for housing on record. Places like Houston, the Kansas City area, Indianapolis, and the vast middle section of the United States offer affordable prices and continued job growth."
2008	California home prices freefall. Home prices down 26% in February. Southern California home sales drop to a 20-year low. Ex-Fed Chairman Greenspan admits recession. Doom and gloom.	[01/2008] "Over the next few months, existing-home sales are expected to hold fairly steady as indicated by pending sales activity, then rise later in the year and continue to improve in 2009."

As you can see from the examples above, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) seems to have little credibility when it comes to making market predictions or accurately assessing the current market conditions. So if the NAR can't give you an accurate reading of the market, why would you expect your realtor to be able to do so?

Realtors, buyers and sellers alike look to you for direction and advice. So when you tell them "Buy now or be forever priced out of the market!" or "We're either at the bottom or very close to it", they tend to trust you... Often times to their detriment. Don't you have an ethical, legal and professional obligation to give your clients accurate information to the best of your ability? I think it's even worse when the National Association of Realtors, an organization that has the social responsibility to accurately report housing market conditions, is taking the lead in misleading.

Here's some good advice:

The next time your realtor advises you, research the market yourself, because the typical realtor has no vested interest in telling you anything that doesn't convince you to buy or sell...