Today's property is in Escondido, California (San Diego County). I chose Escondido because, as I reported in my post The Biggest Loser, it's the city that fell by the greatest percentage in San Diego County.
Type: SFRStatus: Active
MLS #: 076063664
Square Feet: 1,829
Lot Size: 6,500 sqft
Year Built: 2003
Bedrooms: 5
Full Baths: 2
Partial Baths: 0
Listing Date: 08/06/07
On Market: 266 days
Description
- Sllr. will entertain offers btwn. $339,999-$369,999.Can park 6 cars in drive way. Panoramic views, BUILT in 2003.Close to shopping ctrs, hwy 15 & 78 and major st. basically in the harth of Esc. convinient location. Make offers!!!. Motiveted seller most sell QUICKLY!!!Buyer and selling agent to verify all this information before the close of escrow. Sale and commission subject to bank approval. Commission to be split 50% & 50% of the total authorized by the bank.
Sales History
| Date | Sold Price | Gross Gain | Change ($) | Change (%) |
| 07/11/02 | $165,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 02/25/03 | $362,000 | +$197,000 | +$197,000 |  119.39% |
| 09/19/05 | $546,000 | +$381,000 | +$184,000 | 50.83% |
It's easy to see that this home appreciated by unsustainable percentages during the Housing Boom, increasing by an average of 72.9% per year.
Pricing History
| Date | Asking Price | Gross Gain | Change ($) | Change (%) |
| 08/10/07 | $555,999 | +$9,999 | +$9,999 | 1.81% |
| 08/25/07 | $599,999 | +$53,999 | +$44,000 | 7.91% |
| 12/03/07 | $479,999 | -$66,001 | -$120,000 |  20.00% |
| 12/28/07 | $449,999 | -$96,001 | -$30,000 | 6.05% |
| 01/14/08 | $399,999 | -$146,001 | -$50,000 | 11.11% |
| 01/22/08 | $358,999 | -$187,001 | -$41,000 | 10.25% |
| 04/01/08 | $339,999 | -$206,001 | -$19,000 | 5.29% |
| 04/24/08 | $309,999 | -$236,001 | -$30,000 | 8.82% |
| 04/25/08 | $299,000 | -$247,000 | -$10,999 | 3.55% |
The sales price continues to plummet, falling by an average of 5.14% per month, as the seller desperately seeks a buyer. At this point the current asking price of $299,000 is $247,000 (45%) lower than the last sales price. The only question remaining is how low will it go?
My Thoughts
As prices continue to fall in Southern California, the most prudent course of action is to wait it out. As you can see from the pricing history above, if a buyer had purchased this home before April 1st, that buyer would have lost out on an additional savings of $59,999 (16.71%)!!!
How low will it go? No one knows for sure. However, I recently read that home prices tend to increase at about the same rate as inflation (4%). So, if this home had increased 4% per year since it was purchased in the summer of 2002, the current value would be approximately $208,000, an additional 30% decline from the current asking price.
That's definitely worth considering.
UPDATE 11/04/2008: This property has been sold for $251,636
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