Sunday, October 26, 2008

The Slot Machine

A guy is walking through the casino, and stops in front of a slot machine because he noticed a silver dollar on the floor. He picks it up, places it in the slot machine, and pulls the lever. The machine goes crazy!!! He hit the $1,000 Jack Pot!!! People start clapping, whistling, and yelling. He feels like a super star. Although he could collect his winnings and move on, he decides to continue playing; reasoning, I won $1,000 in one roll, who knows how much I could win! The man continues playing for a few hours until finally, the money is all gone. He walks away from the machine disappointed, saying "I can't believe I lost $1,000." But did he really lose $1000? Or was it all funny money?  Remember, he found a silver dollar on the floor which he simply put into the machine and won cash.  Had he not played he'd be no better or worse off.

This analogy has direct applications to the current housing market. How often have you heard statements like: "I've left so much money on the table" or "I've lost so much equity"? But the question is... Did they really lose money? Real money? Or was it funny money?

In many cases, although not all, it was funny money.  Consider that most non-first time buyers sold a home and used the equity as a down payment for their new home. So, although the market has fallen substantially, you must take in account that if you sold a home at an inflated price, then bought a new home at an inflated price then all you've really done was exchanged the debt you had in one home toward that of another. And in many cases, if the homeowner did not choose a risky mortgage loan they're no worse off. I realize it's hard coming to grips your home not being worth what homes were listing and selling for during the Great Housing Boom, but hey, it was the casino's money anyway right?

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