Thursday, May 15, 2008

Housing Market Watch #6

This is the sixth episode of Housing Market Watch (see the previous episode here), where I focus on what's happening with home prices in Southern California using specific examples from the Multi-Listing Service (MLS).

Today's property is in Santa Ana, California (Orange County). I chose Santa Ana because it was The Biggest Loser in Orange County.

Type: SFR
Status: Active
MLS#: S519235

Sq. Ft.: 1,678
Lot Size: 5,150 sqft
Year Built: 1920

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Stories: 1
On RedFin: 101 days


Description
THIS IS A SHORT SALE SUBJECT TO LENDERS AUTHORIZATION AND COMMISSIONS, THIS PROPERTY HAS MOLD IN A BEDROOM CLOSET, SELLER HAS NO MONEY TO DO ANY REPAIRS. SOLD AS IS. COULD BE A POSSIBLE DUPLEX OR FOR LARGE FAMILY. ONCE REPAIRS ARE MADE YOUR BUYER WILL HAVE A TERRIFIC HOME AT A VERY LOW PRICE. PLEASE SHOW AND BRING AN OFFER.


Sales History
Date Sold Price Gross Gain Change ($) Change (%)
05/24/04 $395,000 N/A N/A N/A
01/25/07 $620,000 +$225,000 +$225,000 56.96%

Once again, today's home has appreciated by unsustainable percentages during the Great Housing Boom, increasing by an average of 15.9% per year between May 2004 and January 2007.


Pricing History
Date Asking Price Gross Gain Change ($) Change (%)
01/25/08 $425,000 -$195,000 -$195,000 31.45%
03/30/08 $275,000 -$345,000 -$150,000 35.29%
04/21/08 $230,000 -$390,000 -$45,000 16.36%
07/22/08 $244,900 -$375,100 +$14,900  6.48%
08/26/08 $220,900 -$399,100 -$24,000  9.80%
09/30/08 $195,500 -$424,500 -$25,400 11.50%

The median home price has declined by 38.1% in Santa Ana (when comparing the numbers from March 2007 to March 2008), and are set to continue falling. This property has declined in value by $390,000 (62.90%) since its last sale in January 2005.

As I've demonstrated in previous episodes of the Housing Market Watch, if an uninformed buyer were to have purchased this home before April 21st, that buyer would have lost $45,000 of real money.  To put those savings into perspective, one could purchase a Mercedes-Benz SLK 300 Roadster (albeit not a fully loaded one).

My Thoughts

I was absolutely amazed when I examined the Santa Ana market for this post. I had no idea there were so many homes that have dropped by such large amounts, with some homes as low as $100,000 (asking price). Unfortunately for the seller and the institution that irresponsibly lent the money for this home are both in dire straights, as I believe this home will continue to decline until it reaches a $100,000 price point... or lower.

UPDATE 07/22: The property was re-listed at $244,900.
UPDATE 08/26: Price decreased to $220,900.
UPDATE 90/30: Price decreased to $195,500.

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