Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Housing Market Watch #4

This is the fourth episode of Housing Market Watch (see the previous episode here), where I focus on what's happening with home prices in Southern California using specific examples from the Multi-Listing Service (MLS).

Today's property is in Simi Valley, California (Ventura County).  I chose today's home to illustrate that it's not just the lower end of the market that is crumbling, the upper end is also fair game.

Type: SFR
Status: Active
MLS#: S472435

Sq. Ft.: 4,453
Lot Size: 16,340 sqft
Year Built: 2004

Beds: 6
Baths: 5
Stories: 2
On RedFin: 482 days


Description
Entertain in this gorgeous, 180' panoramic view home w/$150K in upgrades too many to mention, gourmet kitchen w/granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, built-in BBQ & tranquil water fountain in backyard, custom drapes, plantation & wood shutters throughout, 2 master suites, 2 balconies off master and den, mother-in-law suite downstairs w/full bath,extra large closets, tile floors in all baths, fireplace! Short sale subject to lender approval.


Sales History
Date Sold Price Gross Gain Change ($) Change (%)
02/24/05 $960,000 N/A N/A N/A
06/16/08 $781,096 -$178,904 -178,904 18.64

Based on the available information, it looks like the seller is the original owner. Having purchased the home (err.. mansion) in 2005, the seller bought at the height of the housing boom.


Pricing History
Date Asking Price Gross Gain Change ($) Change (%)
02/03/07 $1,200,000 +$240,000 +$240,000 25.00%
03/17/07 $1,129,000 +$169,000 -$71,000 5.92%
07/10/07 $1,049,000 +$89,000 -$80,000 7.09%
08/13/07 $999,900 +$39,900 -$49,100 4.68%
10/25/07 $949,000 -$11,000 -$50,900 5.09%
01/09/08 $899,000 -$61,000 -$50,000 5.27%
03/20/08 $849,900 -$110,100 -$49,100 5.46%
04/17/08 $799,000 -$161,000 -$50,900 5.99%

The median home price has declined by 11% in Simi Valley (when comparing the numbers from March 2007 to March 2008), and are set to continue falling.
This property has declined in value by $161,000 (16.77%) since its last sale in February 2005, a whopping 2.38% decline per month since it was listed.

As I've illustrated in previous episodes of the Housing Market Watch, if an uninformed buyer were to have purchased this home at the full asking price before April 17th (less than one month ago), that buyer would have lost $50,900 of real money. To put those savings into perspective, that's enough money to purchase a well equipped BMW X5!

My Thoughts

Thus far, Simi Valley has faired considerably better than most other cities in Ventura County; however, one has to wonder whether the trend will continue, or whether other local issues in the city like the crisis facing Countrywide Home Loans, it's largest employer will cause massive declines in the near future. So, as prices continue to decline, will you be the owner of one of these Ventura County mansions? Good hunting.

UPDATE 06/16: This property has been sold for $781,096.

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